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Author Topic: ActiveMining Overview and Speculation Thread  (Read 167490 times)
Hfleer
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July 26, 2013, 03:18:39 PM
 #401

Sorry to spoil the party - in this thread, I'm still going to use AM :-P I have no interest in ASICMiner, old, slow, boring, high power consumption, ASIC technology (lol)

The technology isn't really the point, we all know ACTM's technology is (will be) superior. The fact remains, however, that ASICMiner is already on the market, and you will only confuse people if you use their abbreviation when referring to ACTM.

How much more efficient is the Active mining hardware reported to be?  Also isn't AsicMiner working on better hardware as well?

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dhenson
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July 26, 2013, 03:23:10 PM
 #402

Has anyone else noticed that there is < 200 btc worth of shares available on the ask side of the order book before .01/share?  The switch to ACTM on btct.co has effectively erased the Ask ceiling.

If the report comes out today regarding the eAsic NRE being paid, things could get interesting.
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July 26, 2013, 03:54:53 PM
 #403

Has anyone else noticed that there is < 200 btc worth of shares available on the ask side of the order book before .01/share?  The switch to ACTM on btct.co has effectively erased the Ask ceiling.

If the report comes out today regarding the eAsic NRE being paid, things could get interesting.

I did NOT notice that... Very interesting...

C'mon, Ken! Cheesy


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Plazma
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July 26, 2013, 04:33:26 PM
 #404


Shareholder Update:

Hello everyone, I wanted to give a quick update to every investor as it pertains to this week’s proceedings.
 
We had several meetings yesterday, namely the meeting with eASIC which went extremely well.  The ground work has been laid and everything is in motion for the NRE as planned down to the smallest of details.  I caution everyone that it will take us a couple of weeks to complete the painstaking process of getting all the funds converted and on to eASIC.  Please understand for business and legal reasons that we cannot go into any more detail at this time.  I would like to say that the future for Active Mining and its shareholders is exceptionally bright and I am over enthused with how this week has played out.  An official announcement will be released in due course.

Kenneth E. Slaughter, CEO/CTO
Virtual Mining Corporation
Active Mining Corporation

BTC: 1A1Mwjfw2mTko4N2UuVQ3RK4hXJunsPA3j
XMP: AcT3PK4wofjCMt6irN4HXENUqPvoBJRWk3
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July 26, 2013, 04:38:19 PM
 #405

Good news!

auto2nr1
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July 26, 2013, 05:06:54 PM
 #406

Realistically speaking within the next 1-2 months how high do you guys think we can go in regards to price per share? After the 20k chips arrive from Avalon and we start hashing?
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July 26, 2013, 05:12:35 PM
 #407

1-2 months I would say an easy 0.01

The Happy Clappy Bitcoin Chappy - http://twitter.com/vincesamios
neilol
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July 26, 2013, 05:18:39 PM
 #408

Realistically speaking within the next 1-2 months how high do you guys think we can go in regards to price per share? After the 20k chips arrive from Avalon and we start hashing?

Realistically you should do some reading about how to value securities.

Answers predicting share price you are going to get will mean almost nothing. It could be worth 0 is Ken fails in numerous ways. Theoretical high if everything goes absolutely right? Similar market cap to ASICMINER I'd say ($150+ million now?, divided by total ActiveMiner shares would give you price per share).

It's all in the probability and risk you assign to those events happening, that along with where this risk level fits into your portfolio and tolerance determines what YOU are willing to pay for this asset today.

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July 26, 2013, 06:01:27 PM
 #409

Realistically speaking within the next 1-2 months how high do you guys think we can go in regards to price per share? After the 20k chips arrive from Avalon and we start hashing?

One advantage ACTM has going for it in terms of share price at the moment is that the market already has a similar company we can use in order to predict valuation.

Asicminer has 400,000 shares
Current price per share ~4.6btc

ActiveMining has 25,000,000 shares (62.5 x more shares)

Assuming all goes well ActiveMining could easily represent 25% of the current value of Asicminer and could equal or surpass Asicminer in the long run.  Based on private conversations over PM I've had, Ken believes he will grow ActiveMining to surpass all competition.  This is the bar he has set for himself, not just my speculation.

25% market value compared to Asicminer would equate to a .0184/share ACTM share price (using 4.6/share for AM).
50% valuation would of course bring that to .0368/share etc.

There is admittedly a long way to go but the potential is definitely there.
CMMPro
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July 26, 2013, 06:23:58 PM
 #410

^Sounds about as accurate of an estimate as we can have right now.


 

Btw, I'm off on vacation camping for the next week....can you guys try not to break anything while I'm away?
Ideally I'd like to go away for a week in the woods with no internet and come back to everything being just I left it.

That goes for the price of bitcoin as well.
kleeck
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July 26, 2013, 06:55:24 PM
 #411

^Sounds about as accurate of an estimate as we can have right now.


 

Btw, I'm off on vacation camping for the next week....can you guys try not to break anything while I'm away?
Ideally I'd like to go away for a week in the woods with no internet and come back to everything being just I left it.

That goes for the price of bitcoin as well.

If you want I can hold on to your shares for you while you're away.  Grin


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Ozymandias
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July 26, 2013, 07:05:16 PM
Last edit: July 26, 2013, 07:15:26 PM by Ozymandias
 #412

Personally, my magic number for ActM based on current plans is around 0.02 per share (very similar to dhenson's estimate). A valuation of 0.02 per share would represent approximately 5.5% of the network which seems very reasonable even if the 28nm chips are delayed a month or two past current projections.

Comparing to ASICminer also has the interesting side effect of being prone to ASICminer's over or under valuedness (I know it's not a word but bear with me). If ASICminer bears are correct and ASICminer is overvalued than my estimate of 0.02 per share is also too high, but, if the ASICminer bulls are correct, then my estimate of 0.02 is too low.


EDIT: just because I like playing with math

400,000*4.6 = 1,840,000btc = 20% of network + hardware sales
25,000,000 * 0.02 = 500,000btc

500,000/1,840,000 = 0.272

0.272*(20% of network + hardware sales) = 5.4% of network + ~1/4 of ASICminer hardware sales

If network is 1 petahash/s by december, Active Mining would need 54th/s or (54,000gh/s / 16gh/s/chip) = 3375 chips.

Admittedly I don't know what the exact numbers behind "low volume" is for chips produced in q4 of 2013, but ~3400 chips does not seem like too many.

Critiques welcome!
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July 26, 2013, 07:25:34 PM
 #413

Price is rising way to fast

SamuelSG
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July 26, 2013, 07:30:02 PM
 #414

Price is rising way to fast



Get out now then Cheesy

I am enjoying the ride with more or less free money, not going to pull the rip cord yet, way to much fun.
auto2nr1
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July 26, 2013, 07:36:19 PM
 #415

Realistically speaking within the next 1-2 months how high do you guys think we can go in regards to price per share? After the 20k chips arrive from Avalon and we start hashing?

Realistically you should do some reading about how to value securities.

Answers predicting share price you are going to get will mean almost nothing. It could be worth 0 is Ken fails in numerous ways. Theoretical high if everything goes absolutely right? Similar market cap to ASICMINER I'd say ($150+ million now?, divided by total ActiveMiner shares would give you price per share).

It's all in the probability and risk you assign to those events happening, that along with where this risk level fits into your portfolio and tolerance determines what YOU are willing to pay for this asset today.

Realistically i have read and have knowledge about valuing securities.

I've been invested in AMC/ActiveMining since early May. I would say i hold a significant amount of shares well over 100k. I just wanted to see what the public opinion was in regards to how much the share prices could go up. I am sure everyone has a good idea of how much it would be valued at after the 20k chips deploy which should be happening soon as i have seen China and European group buys have been receiving chips the past week or two. It's always nice to talk about and play around with numbers to see how this investment turns out for us. It's been a fun ride so far and i am excited to see where this goes from here on out.
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July 26, 2013, 07:37:02 PM
 #416

Price is rising way to fast



Get out now then Cheesy

I am enjoying the ride with more or less free money, not going to pull the rip cord yet, way to much fun.

I've been selling a few here and there Smiley

auto2nr1
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July 26, 2013, 07:38:43 PM
 #417

Realistically speaking within the next 1-2 months how high do you guys think we can go in regards to price per share? After the 20k chips arrive from Avalon and we start hashing?

One advantage ACTM has going for it in terms of share price at the moment is that the market already has a similar company we can use in order to predict valuation.

Asicminer has 400,000 shares
Current price per share ~4.6btc

ActiveMining has 25,000,000 shares (62.5 x more shares)

Assuming all goes well ActiveMining could easily represent 25% of the current value of Asicminer and could equal or surpass Asicminer in the long run.  Based on private conversations over PM I've had, Ken believes he will grow ActiveMining to surpass all competition.  This is the bar he has set for himself, not just my speculation.

25% market value compared to Asicminer would equate to a .0184/share ACTM share price (using 4.6/share for AM).
50% valuation would of course bring that to .0368/share etc.

There is admittedly a long way to go but the potential is definitely there.

Thanks for the post. It would be great if we can hit close to .02/share. That would be awesome if we can see that within the next few months.
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July 26, 2013, 07:40:58 PM
 #418

Price is rising way to fast
Price is rising way to fast
Get out now then Cheesy
I am enjoying the ride with more or less free money, not going to pull the rip cord yet, way to much fun.
I've been selling a few here and there Smiley

It's fun to watch the price go nuts but no chance I'm selling a single share until .02, even then I'll probably just sell enough to cover my original investment.  I'm in this for the dividends... Those guys that bought in early with AM are receiving ~$15,000/week USD.

I'm just not any good at playing the short trades, I'm sure others can profit by it but I just don't have the time to do it.
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July 26, 2013, 07:50:30 PM
 #419

Price is rising way to fast



No such thing  Wink

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July 26, 2013, 07:53:58 PM
 #420

Price is rising way to fast
Price is rising way to fast
Get out now then Cheesy
I am enjoying the ride with more or less free money, not going to pull the rip cord yet, way to much fun.
I've been selling a few here and there Smiley

It's fun to watch the price go nuts but no chance I'm selling a single share until .02, even then I'll probably just sell enough to cover my original investment.  I'm in this for the dividends... Those guys that bought in early with AM are receiving ~$15,000/week USD.

I'm just not any good at playing the short trades, I'm sure others can profit by it but I just don't have the time to do it.

Ive already got original investment back, and some, still holding quite a few.
Slowly increasing the holding portfolio.

But my "day" job is 3 days on, 3 days off, 12 hour nights...
So in my weekends, I cant help but play the fast and fun game with a portion of my BTC holdings.
I spent years of my youth playing games that were little more than spreadsheets at the core, and they never payed me a dime.
I am having 10 times the fun now, and making ~10% a week fairly reliably.

I swear though, gonna have to get a new keyboard soon, this one is 2 weeks old and the number pad is getting soft already Cheesy
Price is rising way to fast



No such thing  Wink
I'm with you.
I'm holding some cheap options that say the game is on to ~.006, after that, the real fun starts Wink
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