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Author Topic: ActiveMining Overview and Speculation Thread  (Read 167592 times)
Streets 2.0
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July 24, 2013, 06:16:53 PM
 #361

Added some linkage in the update section of the OP

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July 25, 2013, 01:25:49 AM
 #362

Once we have data for a few months of sales we could forecast with a moving average. Pretty easy
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July 25, 2013, 04:20:08 AM
 #363

Lets get back to some old fashioned speculating!

3-4 days until the SatoshiDice passthroughs get their payouts. What does everyone think this will do to the ACTM price?

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July 25, 2013, 04:50:11 AM
 #364

Lets get back to some old fashioned speculating!

3-4 days until the SatoshiDice passthroughs get their payouts. What does everyone think this will do to the ACTM price?

I've been thinking about this as well. I think people who were long SatoshiDice might take up some long positions in ActM, but people who were trading it might just pump-and-dump ActM as the dividends at present aren't likely to convert them to a long position. You might be able to model this by looking at share movement on BitFunder (with regards to the Assets List) over a period of 1–2 months (if you have access to those backups) and see what percentage was holding vs trading. Then, project this percentage over the total pass through share number over all exchanges and figure what volume of long BTC investment is about to be freed up. Of course, ActM is only likely to snag a percentage of those long positions, but it is one of the more attractive long security positions at the moment. Overall, I expect an upward movement in price, but there will be a correction associated with the upward movement.

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July 25, 2013, 07:43:31 AM
 #365

You might be able to model this by looking at share movement on BitFunder (with regards to the Assets List) over a period of 1–2 months (if you have access to those backups) and see what percentage was holding vs trading.
Backup of assets list: https://btct.co/history-bitfunder/

I think the share price will go up some when the fund closes, but not a ton. BTC-TC already got their dividend/buyout and I think that is part of why the price skyrocketed so much over there, and that also dragged the Bitfunder price up.
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July 25, 2013, 11:52:06 AM
 #366

You might be able to model this by looking at share movement on BitFunder (with regards to the Assets List) over a period of 1–2 months (if you have access to those backups) and see what percentage was holding vs trading.
Backup of assets list: https://btct.co/history-bitfunder/

I think the share price will go up some when the fund closes, but not a ton. BTC-TC already got their dividend/buyout and I think that is part of why the price skyrocketed so much over there, and that also dragged the Bitfunder price up.

The two exchange system offers a nice arbitrage opportunity. I've increased my holdings by 20% historically through just a few arbitrage trades. Be careful of WeExchange, though—they don't pay the minimum transaction fee on withdrawals and they require 6 confirmations on deposits.

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July 25, 2013, 12:36:52 PM
 #367

The two exchange system offers a nice arbitrage opportunity. I've increased my holdings by 20% historically through just a few arbitrage trades. Be careful of WeExchange, though—they don't pay the minimum transaction fee on withdrawals and they require 6 confirmations on deposits.

How do you arbitrage btw exchanges?
You buy stock at exchange A and then sell is at exchange B?
But how to transfer the stock from A to B?
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July 25, 2013, 12:41:12 PM
 #368

The two exchange system offers a nice arbitrage opportunity. I've increased my holdings by 20% historically through just a few arbitrage trades. Be careful of WeExchange, though—they don't pay the minimum transaction fee on withdrawals and they require 6 confirmations on deposits.

How do you arbitrage btw exchanges?
You buy stock at exchange A and then sell is at exchange B?
But how to transfer the stock from A to B?

Its not a real arbitrage since the shares  cant be moved between exchanges.  But in theory if you have shares where they are trading expensive relative to the other you can sell, move btc, and buy on the new exchange.  You pick up risk moving the btc between exchanges as the price could come back in line 

"Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent." -Keynes
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July 25, 2013, 12:55:45 PM
 #369

The two exchange system offers a nice arbitrage opportunity. I've increased my holdings by 20% historically through just a few arbitrage trades. Be careful of WeExchange, though—they don't pay the minimum transaction fee on withdrawals and they require 6 confirmations on deposits.

How do you arbitrage btw exchanges?
You buy stock at exchange A and then sell is at exchange B?
But how to transfer the stock from A to B?

I assume he is buying low on BTCT and selling high, then transferring bitcoin to Bitfunder when its lower and buying there
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July 25, 2013, 01:22:06 PM
 #370

Ah, thanks for the explanation!
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July 25, 2013, 01:25:42 PM
 #371

The two exchange system offers a nice arbitrage opportunity. I've increased my holdings by 20% historically through just a few arbitrage trades. Be careful of WeExchange, though—they don't pay the minimum transaction fee on withdrawals and they require 6 confirmations on deposits.

How do you arbitrage btw exchanges?
You buy stock at exchange A and then sell is at exchange B?
But how to transfer the stock from A to B?

I assume he is buying low on BTCT and selling high, then transferring bitcoin to Bitfunder when its lower and buying there

Your right it's not a true arbitrage, I am just selling high, buying low, and equalizing my share holdings on the two exchanges when the buy/sell orders are close to each other—this last part is more difficult as the share price on BTC-TC rarely dips below the BitFunder price.

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July 25, 2013, 06:03:56 PM
 #372

So, Ken is meeting with or already met with eAsic today, has announced that BTCT AMC-PT shares are being tendered to ActiveMining shares "ASAP", and Streets 2.0 announced that an Avalon Board is being put together today! Where do we go from here, share-value wise? Speculate with me!

Active Mining Overview
 
...
 
Important Links and updates:

A Board is being formed, more news to come on this during the week!

Active Mining Corp Private Placement Memorandum:  http://axs.net/AMC/PPM/AM.pdf  and   http://axs.net/AMC/PPM/AM1.pdf

July 24th: Ken departs for California to meet with eASIC.

Avalon prototypes are about a week behind: https://bitcointalk.to/index.php?topic=252531.msg2774323#msg2774323

...


NOTICE:  ALL AMC-PT SHARES WILL BE TENDERED FOR ActiveMining Shares ASAP




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July 25, 2013, 06:12:30 PM
 #373

Different kind of board. This stock is going up at least 5x in the next few months though.
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July 25, 2013, 06:23:35 PM
 #374

Different kind of board. This stock is going up at least 5x in the next few months though.

Are you sure? I suppose it could be the ActiveMining company board of directors, but this post makes me think otherwise, given the context:
Yes, when are the Avalons coming and what about yesterday's dividends?

Avalon chips should be here very soon, advise you to read the Overview thread first post.

The context was confusing, but upon further review I agree with you that this is the Board of Directors being formed. Still cool stuff, but not more dividends. Smiley


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July 25, 2013, 06:53:46 PM
 #375

The meeting is over, Ken is very disappointed.   Cry

eASIC is a scam.  Their "office" was just a unit in a storage rental building.   Angry

There is no deal, there will be no deal.

/speculation


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July 25, 2013, 07:01:23 PM
 #376

The meeting is over, Ken is very disappointed.   Cry

eASIC is a scam.  Their "office" was just a unit in a storage rental building.   Angry

There is no deal, there will be no deal.

/speculation

trolololol.

I've actually poured over the legal documentation that Ken has provided, investigating every name and trying to find any holes in the partnership. eAsic is absolutely a real, and highly competitive ASIC manufacturer, that was clear very early on, so the only option of this partnership being fake was that the documents were all false, signed NDA included. In the end it took way more illogical thinking and mental leaps to justify holding onto the whole, "There is no partnership" argument.

All that to say, I respectfully disagree with your speculation. Cheesy


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Streets 2.0
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July 25, 2013, 08:12:21 PM
 #377

Different kind of board. This stock is going up at least 5x in the next few months though.

Are you sure? I suppose it could be the ActiveMining company board of directors, but this post makes me think otherwise, given the context:
Yes, when are the Avalons coming and what about yesterday's dividends?

Avalon chips should be here very soon, advise you to read the Overview thread first post.

The context was confusing, but upon further review I agree with you that this is the Board of Directors being formed. Still cool stuff, but not more dividends. Smiley

A Board of Directors, was what I referred to, and was something Ken himself posted.

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July 25, 2013, 08:24:16 PM
 #378

Different kind of board. This stock is going up at least 5x in the next few months though.

Are you sure? I suppose it could be the ActiveMining company board of directors, but this post makes me think otherwise, given the context:
Yes, when are the Avalons coming and what about yesterday's dividends?

Avalon chips should be here very soon, advise you to read the Overview thread first post.

The context was confusing, but upon further review I agree with you that this is the Board of Directors being formed. Still cool stuff, but not more dividends. Smiley

A Board of Directors, was what I referred to, and was something Ken himself posted.

<3.


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July 25, 2013, 10:14:08 PM
 #379

Any news on the meeting yet?

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July 25, 2013, 10:35:56 PM
 #380

Yes, we just decided not to tell you. Wink
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