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Author Topic: ActiveMining Overview and Speculation Thread  (Read 167498 times)
zumzero
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August 13, 2013, 08:54:02 PM
 #1201

As it's the speculation thread, let's discuss the timeline of eASIC related stuff.

1)  Do we think the $1,000,000 already been converted and paid to eASIC or might this be ongoing?

2)  Is there a legal process to go through after the funds have been successfully transmitted or is it simply signing on the dotted line?

3) When can we expect a press release from eASIC/ActM?

4) Once the 'deal' is done, is there anything to stop mass production of chips the same day?

5) How long will it take before ActM receive their first batch of chips from eASIC following the press release?


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August 13, 2013, 09:18:37 PM
 #1202

As it's the speculation thread, let's discuss the timeline of eASIC related stuff.

1)  Do we think the $1,000,000 already been converted and paid to eASIC or might this be ongoing?

2)  Is there a legal process to go through after the funds have been successfully transmitted or is it simply signing on the dotted line?

3) When can we expect a press release from eASIC/ActM?

4) Once the 'deal' is done, is there anything to stop mass production of chips the same day?

5) How long will it take before ActM receive their first batch of chips from eASIC following the press release?




Not sure on the first few, but as for point 4, Ken and the engineers at eAsic will probably have to optimise the chip and see if they can get any more performance out of it, then do simulations, then create sample chips and test them. It'll probably be a while between deal signing and actually having chips ready to sell.

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August 13, 2013, 09:45:57 PM
 #1203

As it's the speculation thread, let's discuss the timeline of eASIC related stuff.

1)  Do we think the $1,000,000 already been converted and paid to eASIC or might this be ongoing?

2)  Is there a legal process to go through after the funds have been successfully transmitted or is it simply signing on the dotted line?

3) When can we expect a press release from eASIC/ActM?

4) Once the 'deal' is done, is there anything to stop mass production of chips the same day?

5) How long will it take before ActM receive their first batch of chips from eASIC following the press release?



1) Commercially sensitive info -  not known.
2) Ken has been for the meeting so I would say agreement has already been signed and he just needs to pay.
3) Difficult to say but either as soon as payment made in full or after this once chip release date is known?
4) As above but they are probably doing that now based on an earlier payment (at NDA stage) to take a chip to production stage? So it could be ready to roll?
5) Depends but eASIC pride themselves on a fast turnaround.

'eASIC Nextreme-2 family takes only a fraction of the time of standard cell ASICs as only one via layer needs to be customized for each design. This means that wafer manufacturing can start much earlier and even during the design stage itself.'


http://www.easic.com/high-speed-transceivers-low-cost-power-fpga-nre-asic-45nm-easic-nextreme-2/easic-nextreme-2-fast-turnaround-asics-manufacturing/
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August 13, 2013, 09:47:57 PM
 #1204

I suppose we'll just have to wait for an update as I don't think any of those questions can be answered with any real certainty whatsoever.

I'm scared to bring up the discussion of updates again :/
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August 13, 2013, 09:51:28 PM
 #1205

I wouldn't expect much to happen until the press release comes out. At that point we can assume payment has been made.

Timescales - guess we should keep referring to the front page of this thread? There won't be hardware overnight, that's for sure. Plus we've seen that companies have problems and delays, even AsicMining.

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August 13, 2013, 10:09:23 PM
 #1206

It's a timely inquirey from zumzero, what we do know is how well Ken has chosen with eASIC. I mean they are a serious serious outfit, and as we know they have just entered into a partnership with Seagate.

The deal will 'combine Seagate’s expertise in SSD with eASIC’s expertise in fast time-to-market, low-cost and low-power custom silicon solutions.'

http://www.easic.com/easic-announces-strategic-investment-by-seagate/

So Seagate are going with eASIC because of their speed of successfully getting chips to full production. That is a huge shot of confidence from a NASDAQ listed company in full ascendency amid a Global recession.

It's pretty incredible really.

Has anyone actually pointed out how smart and clever Ken has been with getting eASIC to build our chips? Perfect solution.



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August 13, 2013, 10:36:52 PM
Last edit: August 13, 2013, 10:48:39 PM by zumzero
 #1207

I would encourage those participating in the speculation thread to feel free to voice their comments irrespective of the white noise that went on before.  That's ultimately what this thread is for and we should try to keep it on topic as best we can.

So, as ArticWolf has pointed out, there is a process that they need to go through between the signing of the deal and delivering the chips.

Let's speculate on this;

Once the deal is announced the share price is likely to rise to a point as yet unconceived.  During this time everyone will be chomping at the bit for a mass rollout of hardware both for the bat cave farm and hardware sales.  It is likely that during this phase we will see a levelling of share price and probably a dip, until the point ActM start to deliver a real soultion.  When this happens, the company will be considered as a real market player and the share price will reach unchartered territory.  So there will be two significant spikes in share price at both of these stages, but the greatest gains will be the moment they start hashing because it's then the shareholders start to get - shares owned/10,000,000 x revenue which will also include harware sales which is the secret weapon that everyone is scared to talk about.

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August 13, 2013, 10:56:33 PM
 #1208

I would encourage those participating in the speculation thread to feel free to voice their comments irrespective of the white noise that went on before.  That's ultimately what this thread is for and we should try to keep it on topic as best we can.

So, as ArticWolf has pointed out, there is a process that they need to go through between the signing of the deal and delivering the chips.

Let's speculate on this;

Once the deal is announced the share price is likely to rise to a point as yet unconceived.  During this time everyone will be chomping at the bit for a mass rollout of hardware both for the bat cave farm and hardware sales.  It is likely that during this phase we will see a levelling of share price and probably a dip, until the point ActM start to deliver a real soultion.  When this happens, the company will be considered as a real market player and the share price will reach unchartered territory.  So there will be two enourmous spikes in share price at both of these stages, but the greatest gains will be the moment they start hashing because it's then the shareholders start to get 1/10,000,000 bitcoin per share of the 'true' value of ActM which will also include harware sales which is the secret weapon that everyone is scared to talk about.

This all sounds wonderful. Really. And if everything went to plan, I'm sure we'd see something very much in line with what you're talking about. However, if there's one thing I've learned by being a part of the bitcoin community for the past year or so, it's that promises and projections are a dime a dozen.

These concerns may be misguided (and perhaps someone can set me straight), but I'm still wondering about these Avalon chips from the steamboat order. With difficulty passing 50 million, if we don't receive these chips and get them online and mining, how detrimental to development is this? I understand the long term is comprised of eASIC chips and hardware sales (which I'm very confident in), but what about the interim? Those chips were slotted to increase our current hashing by an order of magnitude. If we wanted to move forward with conservative speculation/predictions, how should we begin calculating the effect of this delay?

How much is each passing day going to decrease mining revenue? How do things look if we considered them an entirely sunk cost?

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August 13, 2013, 11:53:21 PM
 #1209


These concerns may be misguided (and perhaps someone can set me straight), but I'm still wondering about these Avalon chips from the steamboat order.


This is a big concern of mine as well.
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August 14, 2013, 12:00:27 AM
 #1210

Ultimately no-one will make their fortune with the anticipated Avalon chip arrival.  Yes, for shareholder confidence it is important that they start mining sooner rather than later.

But consider this, 10,000,000 shares will not cease to exist, they may only change hands.

Even if the 20,000 Avalon chips never arrive it will make zero difference to the long term investors.

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August 14, 2013, 12:08:39 AM
 #1211


These concerns may be misguided (and perhaps someone can set me straight), but I'm still wondering about these Avalon chips from the steamboat order.


This is a big concern of mine as well.

I'm on the Terrahash email list and they sent this.. apparently they did get some chips today from avalon so maybe there is some hope.

Just wanted to touch base with everybody who is waiting for their orders. As most of you already know, the delay has been caused due to BitSyncom's (the company that manufactures Avalon ASIC chips) inability to deliver chips on time. Most of you might have already read Yifu Guo's (head of operations at BitSyncom) statement last week at http://www.avalon-asics.com/, wherein he promised to resume shipping chips by the end of this week. On reading the statement, we decided to wait and watch a few more days. We just received 60 sample chips from Avalon today (apparently for our 20,000 chips order that we placed on June 20th), totally out of the blue (no update on the order page, no tracking number). We are pretty confident that BitSyncom will start shipping chip orders soon as well.
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August 14, 2013, 12:09:28 AM
 #1212

Ultimately no-one will make their fortune with the anticipated Avalon chip arrival.  Yes, for shareholder confidence it is important that they start mining sooner rather than later.

But consider this, 10,000,000 shares will not cease to exist, they may only change hands.

Even if the 20,000 Avalon chips never arrive it will make zero difference to the long term investors.

I agree the company has never been about the Avalon chips, they were an opportunity Ken saw to fill the gap between IPO and eASIC delivering. I think you can say Ken defo made the right decision to order and the right decision to go with eASIC.

Now personally I think eASIC will deliver sooner rather than later, I think we will be surprised by how quickly we get our ASIC's (completely speculation I have NO inside knowledge whatsoever). So in the long run yes Avalon chips are a side issue.
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August 14, 2013, 12:12:18 AM
 #1213


These concerns may be misguided (and perhaps someone can set me straight), but I'm still wondering about these Avalon chips from the steamboat order.


This is a big concern of mine as well.

I'm on the Terrahash email list and they sent this.. apparently they did get some chips today from avalon so maybe there is some hope.

Just wanted to touch base with everybody who is waiting for their orders. As most of you already know, the delay has been caused due to BitSyncom's (the company that manufactures Avalon ASIC chips) inability to deliver chips on time. Most of you might have already read Yifu Guo's (head of operations at BitSyncom) statement last week at http://www.avalon-asics.com/, wherein he promised to resume shipping chips by the end of this week. On reading the statement, we decided to wait and watch a few more days. We just received 60 sample chips from Avalon today (apparently for our 20,000 chips order that we placed on June 20th), totally out of the blue (no update on the order page, no tracking number). We are pretty confident that BitSyncom will start shipping chip orders soon as well.

That is fantastic news. Perhaps Avalon should have gone with eASIC??
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August 14, 2013, 12:37:43 AM
 #1214

That is fantastic news. Perhaps Avalon should have gone with eASIC??

Perhaps Avalon should get their shit together. Fuck me, it's like no company involved in bitcoin mining/hardware manufacturer can hit a delivery date. That's not universally true, but there is a big hole in this market for a company which can make competitive equipment, deliver it on time, and have a hint of customer service.

Here's to hoping ActM can make that happen...
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August 14, 2013, 01:03:31 AM
Last edit: August 14, 2013, 01:22:09 AM by zumzero
 #1215

That is fantastic news. Perhaps Avalon should have gone with eASIC??

Perhaps Avalon should get their shit together. Fuck me, it's like no company involved in bitcoin mining/hardware manufacturer can hit a delivery date. That's not universally true, but there is a big hole in this market for a company which can make competitive equipment, deliver it on time, and have a hint of customer service.

Here's to hoping ActM can make that happen...

The question is, are we backing the right horse?  

It's indisputable that the first company that delivers next gen competitive mining hardware will set themselves above the rest.

The company who builds a reputation for defying the normal expectation that there will be prolonged delays and get's the equipment to you within 5-10 days will win outright.

As I see it, everything is in place for this to happen with ActM.  Yes, I am a fervent believer in this company but I'm only that because I've done my research.

So far ActM are unproven in their ability to mass produce harware for both sales and populating our bat cave, and as I see it, the greatest risk lies within their ability to make this happen, and not their ability to make the world's fatest working bitcoin mining asic chip.  

EDIT:  The fact that a board of advisors is currently being established means that a wealth of knowledge and skills will be injected into this project.  Ken is an engineer and has accepted his limitations publicly.  It speaks volumes that he is able to do this and embraces and welcomes input from skilled shareholders.  

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August 14, 2013, 01:29:59 AM
 #1216

The question is, are we backing the right horse?  

It's indisputable that the first company that delivers next gen competitive mining hardware will set themselves above the rest.

The company who builds a reputation for defying the normal expectation that there will be prolonged delays and get's the equipment to you within 5-10 days will win outright.

As I see it, everything is in place for this to happen with ActM.  Yes, I am a fervent believer in this company but I'm only that because I've done my research.

So far ActM are unproven in their ability to mass produce harware for both sales and populating our bat cave, and as I see it, the greatest risk lies within their ability to make this happen, and not their ability to make the world's fatest working bitcoin mining asic chip.  Ken is an engineer and that makes me sleep happy.

You and I are certainly on the same page regarding this. And yes, it most definitely is a matter of choosing the right horse. The thing I try to remain aware of is confirmation bias and self-flattery. We should strive to be honest here. Rational criticisms need to be taken seriously which is something that you can, on occasion, find among iCEBREAKER's FUD-filled rants (although he's far too extreme in his expression of concerns for my taste).

It would greatly behoove us to call out and patch/fix potential pitfalls before we hit them.

And I'm sorry, but I'll say it again: I believe there should be more accountability regarding updates. Yes, I understand Ken and the crew are very busy. But relaying information to ActiveMining-PR and having him throw up a couple sentence update once a week is not a time sink and should be totally doable. If they're in a pinch, absolutely - fuck the update. But we're talking about something that takes a couple minutes.

I am long ActM.  
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August 14, 2013, 01:45:03 AM
Last edit: August 14, 2013, 02:07:51 AM by zumzero
 #1217

In my work I work to schedules.  Ones that I create which are down to 1/12th of an hour.  If I were ActM-PR I would announce a weekly update at xhrs and stick to that come hell or high water.  Military style.

Even if there were no news to speak of, I would say so at xhrs.  I'd make a single post each week, with intermediary posts when required, and announce that I would not respond to subsequent posts at that time.

I would ensure that dividends were paid as regular as clockwork.  Military style.  All of which would come with an email, on time, every time, barring the death of a family pet.

I have no desire to take on such a role as I prefer the freedom of voicing opinion.  I have absolute faith in Streets 2.0 as I know he is the right man for the job.




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August 14, 2013, 02:06:51 AM
 #1218

In my work I work to schedules.  Ones that I create which are down to 1/12th of an hour.  If I were ActM-PR I would announce a weekly update at xhrs and stick to that come hell or high water.  Military style.

Even if there were no news to speak of, I would say so at xhrs.  I'd make a single post each week, with intermediary posts when required, and announce that I would not respond to subsequent posts at that time.

I would ensure that dividends were paid as regular as clockwork.  Military style.  All of which would come with an email, on time, every time, barring the death of a family pet.

I have no desire to take on such a role as I prefer the freedom of voicing opinion.  I have absolute faith in Streets 2.0 as I know he is the right man for the job.

I would love for this to become a thing.

How can we make it happen? ActiveMining-PR would obviously be the account to do this from. Is there a chance we could get a commitment to weekly updates?

Is this just something we need to ask 'pretty please?' for?
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August 14, 2013, 02:10:48 AM
 #1219

We don't have to do anything to make this happen.  Given AMC/ActM history of listening to the community, you can bet your bottom dollar that this will be taken on board.  Wink

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August 14, 2013, 02:33:48 AM
 #1220

We don't have to do anything to make this happen.  Given AMC/ActM history of listening to the community, you can bet your bottom dollar that this will be taken on board.  Wink

I'd like to be more proactive than to simply hope they notice. I'll probably send a pair of PMs to Ken and ActiveMining-PR asking for thoughts on reliable weekly updates.
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