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Author Topic: ActiveMining Overview and Speculation Thread  (Read 167498 times)
bobboooiie
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August 08, 2013, 08:52:27 AM
 #1141

Lets not forget the weekly dividend!

You got your dust cleaner ready ?
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August 08, 2013, 09:13:32 AM
 #1142

The price goes up. The price goes down. The price goes up. The price goes down.
More IPOs for Mining Companies with big dreams show up.
The funds for those new, novel IPOs must come from somewhere, so maybe people are selling ActM to get into something else.
Why was there a recent drop from over .006 to .004x?
What do you think the price of ActM should be right now?
What new IPOs on BF and elsewhere look good?

I don't think there's anything else that looks good. All those >28nm chips will take a huge toll as the global network diff rises and they won't be able to compete due to their running power costs.

In the 28nm die shrink all the new guys appearing want to grab all the profit for themselves as much as possible so they don't offer any investment options, just hardware for sale.

Even most current 28nm designs look very sketchy. I can definitely understand ActM's ~16GH/s chip specs, but chips with 100GH/s? 400GH/s? Pulling one of those off requires a team with extreme 28nm knowledge and skill and I don't think anyone with both would choose to design a chip like that (they would need precise analog simulations, custom transistor design, etc, just to keep the signal interference inside those big chips at bay; much easier to design smaller and more efficient chips).

KnC's 28nm ASIC is at a similar efficiency to BitFury's 55nm ASIC. There's more to it than simply the size of the process. These 28nm ASICs sacrifice performance and efficiency for faster design and manufacturing and lower NRE costs. You can't just claim one chip is better than another because it uses a smaller process.

The only way for a chip on 28nm to be worse than anything else is if the designers cut corners or don't properly know how to use the die shrink benefits. Any big die area IC will take a big hit on efficiency if not properly designed. I don't think you correctly understood what I was saying above. Smiley
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August 08, 2013, 11:41:47 AM
 #1143

Lets not forget the weekly dividend!
From the dividends it looks like it has about the same mining power as COGNITIVE, except the latter does not have an insane market capitalization.

You watch out before i flatten you m8.

Oh wait.


 Grin
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August 08, 2013, 02:16:43 PM
 #1144

The price goes up. The price goes down. The price goes up. The price goes down.
More IPOs for Mining Companies with big dreams show up.
The funds for those new, novel IPOs must come from somewhere, so maybe people are selling ActM to get into something else.
Why was there a recent drop from over .006 to .004x?
What do you think the price of ActM should be right now?
What new IPOs on BF and elsewhere look good?

I don't think there's anything else that looks good. All those >28nm chips will take a huge toll as the global network diff rises and they won't be able to compete due to their running power costs.

In the 28nm die shrink all the new guys appearing want to grab all the profit for themselves as much as possible so they don't offer any investment options, just hardware for sale.

Even most current 28nm designs look very sketchy. I can definitely understand ActM's ~16GH/s chip specs, but chips with 100GH/s? 400GH/s? Pulling one of those off requires a team with extreme 28nm knowledge and skill and I don't think anyone with both would choose to design a chip like that (they would need precise analog simulations, custom transistor design, etc, just to keep the signal interference inside those big chips at bay; much easier to design smaller and more efficient chips).

KnC's 28nm ASIC is at a similar efficiency to BitFury's 55nm ASIC. There's more to it than simply the size of the process. These 28nm ASICs sacrifice performance and efficiency for faster design and manufacturing and lower NRE costs. You can't just claim one chip is better than another because it uses a smaller process.

The only way for a chip on 28nm to be worse than anything else is if the designers cut corners or don't properly know how to use the die shrink benefits. Any big die area IC will take a big hit on efficiency if not properly designed. I don't think you correctly understood what I was saying above. Smiley

Yeah there was a post the other day detailing how when you shove that much together (28nm) it creates opportunities for a lot of conflicts to arise in the chip, if it isn't designed correctly. The post was saying that it would be interesting to see how the other 28nm competitors deal with this issue, as it was one the poster was confident Ken could/has resolved.
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August 08, 2013, 07:08:14 PM
 #1145

What do you think the dividend will be when the hardware is being sold and mining fully underway?
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August 08, 2013, 08:22:02 PM
Last edit: August 08, 2013, 08:44:46 PM by Ozymandias
 #1146

What do you think the dividend will be when the hardware is being sold and mining fully underway?

Assuming 10-15% of network hashrate and the equivalent income in hardware sales (likely an underestimation) then weekly dividend would be ~0.0004 to ~0.0006 per share (~1btc/2000 shares) per week. At today's prices and all 25,000,000 shares receiving dividends that translates to 3.67%-5.05% weekly return and an APR of ~550-1100% with DRIP.

Around a share price of 0.05 we get a much more sane, though still very high, APR of ~68% - 136%

There are a LOT of assumptions in the above math and all of the unknowns make it difficult to correctly forecast so take it with a bucket of salt.


EDIT for some more numbers:

If we assume a much less optimistic scenario where we only have 3-5% of the network (and the equivalent income in hardware sales) we are looking at ~16-27% APR at a share price of 0.02 and all 25,000,000 shares receiving dividends of ~0.00006-0.0001btc/share/week (1btc/12500shares/week).

Obviously I'm a share holder and very biased, but those are the numbers that are keeping me on Team ActM!
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August 08, 2013, 09:59:02 PM
 #1147

Any ideas on how this will affect the mining market ..?
https://blockchain.info/charts/miners-operating-profit-margin
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August 08, 2013, 10:12:14 PM
 #1148

Any ideas on how this will affect the mining market ..?
https://blockchain.info/charts/miners-operating-profit-margin
It will drive miners to more power efficient mining rigs.
They will stop using GPUs and turn to 130nm ASICs.
Then they will stop using 130nm ASICs to use 110nm ASICs. And so on, all the way to 28nm ASICs.
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August 09, 2013, 04:06:13 AM
 #1149

http://www.avalon-asics.com/

Looks like Avalon are shipping again

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August 09, 2013, 04:14:17 AM
 #1150

http://www.avalon-asics.com/

Looks like Avalon are shipping again

While we have send out some chip orders, there is currently ~200k chips stuck in custom right at this moment for about 2 weeks now, this matter is very painful for us and our customers. As majority of the chip orders ( 70% ) totaling ~800k is made between early and mid-may resulting in a tight time frame to work with. We do have more chips coming in via different route next week which will ease this a little bit. (you can take this as chips will resume shipping by end of next week for now.)
We will take this time to fulfill a promise to announce the next generation chip 2 month ahead of schedule so potential buyers can make a decision. Soon we will be disabling the pre-order of Avalon Gen1 chips and only sell the remaining stock as we phase out old technology for a new 55nm, which goes on sale for immediate delivery at mid October 2013. This 55nm will retain the same physical dimension as the 110nm Gen1, only few pads were changed so getting them up and running requires very little change to existing design.
In addition, there is 2 more chip designs in the pipeline, we have decided to proceed developing Gen3 and Gen4 in parallel due to the long R&D time of low processor nodes, both of these will be a Full Custom ASIC design.ype of business operations.
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August 09, 2013, 06:32:30 AM
 #1151

tl;dr

we're still roping you along suckers.



Shouldn't even make mention of their future product line when there is a crapload wrong with the way the existing line is being handled.
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August 09, 2013, 02:07:57 PM
 #1152

I don't know.  They seem pretty confident about their 55nm products that they say will be shipping from in-stock warehousing in October.  That sounds like they are on the way and will be in housings ready to hash in a few months and will only sell that way, no more pre-orders.

Our 28nm units will outperform them, but not by nearly as much as they outperform the 130's and 110's.
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August 09, 2013, 03:42:01 PM
 #1153

Miners seem to all into several groups:

The hobbiests who are dong it with under 30 GH just for fun and are using USB stick eruptors.
Those guys really do not seem to care about ROI and just want to be part of the fun.

Then there are guys with 30 to 100 GH. They want to make some money but perhaps, could not afford or could not get bigger rigs.

Then, there are the guys who have more than 100 GH running. That group then can be divided into the guys who have a TG or more, the guys who got their equipment at a good price and the ones who simply bought a fast piece of hardware. 

I have ignored the guys who are mining on FPGAs and older equipment. Those guys probably paid off their initial hardware costs.

As the cost of mining goes up, the hobbiest and big guys will stay in. It is the guys in the middle, I imagine, who will be squeezed out. But, as they get squeezed out, difficulty might go down. So then more guys will come in.  But, if the TG guys come in, then the leaving of a few in the middle won't matter. I think it will force the arms race to be more intense until someone works on the lowest power at the highest speed and somewhere there is a point of diminishing return.

Any ideas on how this will affect the mining market ..?
https://blockchain.info/charts/miners-operating-profit-margin

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August 09, 2013, 04:17:40 PM
 #1154

From what I've read on the latest offers and chip design specs, it seems the technical parts are always a tiny detail to the overall investor mindset on how to value a typical Bitcoin ASIC IPO.

Please replace "banana" with "terahash": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BYBw_o_2nG0 Grin
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August 10, 2013, 04:13:43 AM
 #1155

Speaking of speculation, at one time, I owned over 250,000 shares of AMC/ActM. They one weekend, after a phone conversation with a friend, I panicked and decided I had to sell all my ActM before the imminent price drop he convinced me would happen.

I sold about 100K. Then I spent a few days regretting what I did. I still regret it.

Then on IRC I got into a conversation with a guy who told me about a book which made a big difference in the way he invests online.  

The book is The Disciplined Trader: Developing Winning Attitudes
by Mark Douglas

The author was a Chicago commodities trader. Many of you will enjoy this book, since it explains how to remove emotions from trading decisions and how to focus on specific trading goals.



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August 10, 2013, 04:58:51 AM
 #1156

They one weekend, after a phone conversation with a friend, I panicked and decided I had to sell all my ActM before the imminent price drop he convinced me would happen.

The book is The Disciplined Trader: Developing Winning Attitudes
by Mark Douglas

The author was a Chicago commodities trader. Many of you will enjoy this book, since it explains how to remove emotions from trading decisions and how to focus on specific trading goals.

Did you read it or is this another advice from a friend of yours? Grin


Quote
The Disciplined Trader: Developing Winning Attitudes

This work aims to help traders learn the critical behaviours necessary in responding to market conditions and opportunities. The author - an experienced commodities trader - has considered and confronted the problems he experienced in trading.

Learn how to develop a complete winning attitude

With rare insight based on his first-hand commodity trading experience, Mark Douglas demonstrates why the beliefs learned to function effectively in society are often formidable psychological barriers in trading. "The Disciplined Trader" helps you join the elite few who have learned how to control their trading behavior by developing a systematic, step-by-step approach for winning -- week after week, month after month.
In a comprehensive and logical manner, Mark Douglas shows you how to examine and limit your trading behavior -- how to develop the mental discipline possessed by the small minority of winners who make money consistently.

Mark Douglas is President of Trading Behavior Dynamics, Inc. A successful commodities trader himself, Mark has drawn on his own experiences - as well as observations of countless other traders in his consulting business to identify and develop methods for overcoming counterproductive trading behaviors. He conducts his own seminars and workshops for leading commodities and brokerage organizations as well as being an invited speaker at numerous investment conferences around the world.

Amazon reviews look promising. Thanks for sharing. Smiley

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August 10, 2013, 06:24:31 AM
Last edit: August 10, 2013, 06:34:40 AM by freedomno1
 #1157

They one weekend, after a phone conversation with a friend, I panicked and decided I had to sell all my ActM before the imminent price drop he convinced me would happen.

The book is The Disciplined Trader: Developing Winning Attitudes
by Mark Douglas

The author was a Chicago commodities trader. Many of you will enjoy this book, since it explains how to remove emotions from trading decisions and how to focus on specific trading goals.

Did you read it or is this another advice from a friend of yours? Grin


Quote
The Disciplined Trader: Developing Winning Attitudes

This work aims to help traders learn the critical behaviours necessary in responding to market conditions and opportunities. The author - an experienced commodities trader - has considered and confronted the problems he experienced in trading.

Learn how to develop a complete winning attitude

With rare insight based on his first-hand commodity trading experience, Mark Douglas demonstrates why the beliefs learned to function effectively in society are often formidable psychological barriers in trading. "The Disciplined Trader" helps you join the elite few who have learned how to control their trading behavior by developing a systematic, step-by-step approach for winning -- week after week, month after month.
In a comprehensive and logical manner, Mark Douglas shows you how to examine and limit your trading behavior -- how to develop the mental discipline possessed by the small minority of winners who make money consistently.F.U. Money: Make As Much Money As You Want And Live Your Life As You Damn Well Please!

Mark Douglas is President of Trading Behavior Dynamics, Inc. A successful commodities trader himself, Mark has drawn on his own experiences - as well as observations of countless other traders in his consulting business to identify and develop methods for overcoming counterproductive trading behaviors. He conducts his own seminars and workshops for leading commodities and brokerage organizations as well as being an invited speaker at numerous investment conferences around the world.

Amazon reviews look promising. Thanks for sharing. Smiley

Since your mentioning books I'm currently reading F.U. Money: Make As Much Money As You Want And Live Your Life As You Damn Well Please!
It is a very proactive in your face book.
The author is a self made millionaire. In fact, he never even graduated from college. Dan came to North America from Hong Kong when he was only 13 years old, and didn’t speak a word of English. Many of you will enjoy this book, since it explains how to do what you want and make your own personal freedom simply your FU money.
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August 10, 2013, 07:51:05 AM
 #1158

http://www.avalon-asics.com/

Looks like Avalon are shipping again

How optimistic and adorably naive. 

Latest from Avalon's Scam Accusation thread:


Angry  Update:

BTC from pre-orders was never spent.  Why-I-Eff-You may not have wallet access/control any longer.   Shocked

Photographic evidence of ~375k chips dates to early July, Why-I-Eff-You claims chips still in customs.   Roll Eyes

All kinds of of sketchy FUD about greed, lies, conflict, and Triad assassins.  No sex though obviously, as this is still Bitcoin.   Grin


This has now all just been confirmed today;

Basically,this team designed chips(110nm) for Avalon.

And for some unknown reason,they are looking for some new partner/investor.(40nm)
And,we don't know what happened inside Avalon.
To summarize what you and johnyj have said:
(1) Key members of the Avalon design team are now independent of Avalon;
(2) This new design team is proposing the development of a 40nm chip;
(3) The team is seeking investment - as in capital, as opposed to crowd source or pre-sales.

IS THIS CORRECT?
Where you assumed that they seek investment or new partner? Also, where is evident that they bitsysncom asic team has split inside?
Maybe this has something to do with btc address for chip purchases? Yifu said that who claim that they own that btc address.
This is why is asked for clarification.  As to my inferences:
(1) yuchuanzhen stated "Based on the author's words,may be some thing happened to the Avalon team.And,most like a big one."
(2) and (3), yuchuanzhen stated "And for some unknown reason,they are looking for some new partner/investor.(40nm)"

Again, this development is currently, in primary source, in Chinese.  I think everyone who is reporting it, in English, should be very careful to be very clear.  Presumptions themselves may not translate correctly, even if they are, themselves, correct.

Yep.  That's exactly what I've been saying since that happened.  Learn the truth about who controlled those chips, and the truth about those statements, and then, and only then, would you know the truth about Avalon.  

Nobody cared.  And anyone who might actually have known would not repeat it, because, after all, that's part of that culture.

So now, here we are, with some guys trying to see if they can really buy a dozen chips out of Shenzen on alibaba.

BKKcoins, burnin, terrahash, Sebastain, and the others, I'm truly sorry for your losses and disappointments.



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August 10, 2013, 09:48:38 AM
 #1159

BKKcoins, burnin, terrahash, Sebastain, and the others, I'm truly sorry for your losses and disappointments.
It hurts me to see so much effort lost as well
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August 10, 2013, 02:29:29 PM
 #1160

From what I've read on the latest offers and chip design specs, it seems the technical parts are always a tiny detail to the overall investor mindset on how to value a typical Bitcoin ASIC IPO.

Please replace "banana" with "terahash": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BYBw_o_2nG0 Grin

Haha. I hadn't seen that short. Very good!

It is interesting that the fundamentals of our market, the technology that these companies are based on, is widely ignored or seen as "not that big of a deal". "MOAR TERAHASHES!!!"

Chasing the banana, indeed.


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