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Author Topic: ActiveMining Overview and Speculation Thread  (Read 167490 times)
lolstate
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July 16, 2013, 06:24:41 PM
 #101

Ok, how about this for some speculation.

A largish investor in ActM gets fed up waiting for the walls to fall so things can start trucking. He decides to buy up a couple million shares on BitFunder and btct.co to ensure ActM gets the capital it needs for the NRE. Now, this whale isn't stupid: facing an over concentration of his net worth in ActM, he decides to sell into the rising price over the next few weeks to recoup his BTC allowing him re-balance his portfolio. He makes a profit, ActM is happy, the shareholders are happy 'cos we're trading at > 0.0025.

 Cool
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July 16, 2013, 06:26:04 PM
 #102

Ok, how about this for some speculation.

A largish investor in ActM gets fed up waiting for the walls to fall so things can start trucking. He decides to buy up a couple million shares on BitFunder and btct.co to ensure ActM gets the capital it needs for the NRE. Now, this whale isn't stupid: facing an over concentration of his net worth in ActM, he decides to sell into the rising price over the next few weeks to recoup his BTC allowing him re-balance his portfolio. He makes a profit, ActM is happy, the shareholders are happy 'cos we're trading at > 0.0025.

 Cool

Pull the trigger man!!

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July 16, 2013, 06:33:20 PM
 #103

based on what i saw - ken sold off on coins @65$. if he had waited a week more he'd have gotten 30% more $. these kind of things will eat away at his business unless he is able to maximize the time and amount he sells. that would probably help him a great deal to pace out his exchange orders (and not in a way to crash the market)

ok
lolstate
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July 16, 2013, 06:35:20 PM
Last edit: July 16, 2013, 06:57:08 PM by lolstate
 #104

based on what i saw - ken sold off on coins @65$. if he had waited a week more he'd have gotten 30% more $. these kind of things will eat away at his business unless he is able to maximize the time and amount he sells. that would probably help him a great deal to pace out his exchange orders (and not in a way to crash the market)

Lots of people said we were heading to $20-$30, so $65 was the rational trade at the time.

Edit: typo
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July 16, 2013, 06:39:39 PM
 #105

based on what i saw - ken sold off on coins @65$. if he had waited a week more he'd have gotten 30% more $. these kind of things will eat away at his business unless he is able to maximize the time and amount he sells. that would probably help him a great deal to pace out his exchange orders (and not in a way to crash the market)

That was needed for an immediate payment of the Klondike boards I believe.
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July 16, 2013, 06:41:04 PM
 #106

based on what i saw - ken sold off on coins @65$. if he had waited a week more he'd have gotten 30% more $. these kind of things will eat away at his business unless he is able to maximize the time and amount he sells. that would probably help him a great deal to pace out his exchange orders (and not in a way to crash the market)

Lot's of people said we were heading to $20-$30, so $65 was the rational trade at the time.

 Yep i was waiting for 30-40~ to buy more BTC.

BTC: 1A1Mwjfw2mTko4N2UuVQ3RK4hXJunsPA3j
XMP: AcT3PK4wofjCMt6irN4HXENUqPvoBJRWk3
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July 16, 2013, 07:08:11 PM
 #107

based on what i saw - ken sold off on coins @65$. if he had waited a week more he'd have gotten 30% more $. these kind of things will eat away at his business unless he is able to maximize the time and amount he sells. that would probably help him a great deal to pace out his exchange orders (and not in a way to crash the market)

That was needed for an immediate payment of the Klondike boards I believe.

Sometime you can't wait, the engineers needed to be paid, the Klondike assembly needed to be paid, the deposit on the Klondike's needed to be paid, etc.
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July 17, 2013, 03:07:39 AM
 #108

Let's talk share value estimates. Give your projected value, time frame it is achieved within, and some reasoning behind your speculation (if you have any...)

GO!


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FloatesMcgoates
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July 17, 2013, 03:09:54 AM
 #109

 <= .0025 for the next month
lewicki
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July 17, 2013, 03:10:58 AM
 #110

We have sold more than 25% of the wall. It will only drop faster, the close we get.

Ken said he already received 2 orders for the Fast Hash miners today.

News AND pictures of the Avalon prototype next week.
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July 17, 2013, 03:13:42 AM
 #111

We will be through the wall by the end of next week (given pictures of the Avalon prototype boards are released). After we are through the wall, I'm guessing that we'll see at least an 70% spike.
stslimited
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July 17, 2013, 04:45:25 AM
 #112

He will have enough capital for the NRE from the preorders.
ArcticWolf
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July 17, 2013, 06:36:17 AM
 #113

Over 100k shares sold on btc-tc in the last 6 hours. Wall down to 1,445,604

https://www.crypto-trade.com/ref/arcticwolf Try CryptoTrade.com, a new exchange for trading Currencies and Securities
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July 17, 2013, 10:01:14 AM
Last edit: July 17, 2013, 11:21:29 AM by Vbs
 #114

At the current rate, the wall will be gone in ~9 days! ~8.8 days! Grin Grin Grin
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July 17, 2013, 11:35:31 AM
 #115

Let's talk share value estimates. Give your projected value, time frame it is achieved within, and some reasoning behind your speculation (if you have any...)

GO!

I see it in this light:

After the wall goes down, a small bump in price over the course of that week then it flattens out.  Avalon prototype information and pics released, a small price surge with skepticism, just on the news.  NRE is announced as finished and eASIC begins production, another price surge.  Avalon's brought online, now everyone starts to take notice that the model has been coming to fruition, even the whiners who have been bashing see they made a mistake, another price surge but more aggressively.

Exact numbers?  Who knows, but look to these other securities who receive their miners, BFL singles, Avalon's, etc. and how their share price inflates. 

lewicki
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July 17, 2013, 12:28:29 PM
 #116

BitFunder Wall:

Where once there were over 600k shares before the .0025 wall, there are now 224,158.
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July 17, 2013, 12:30:33 PM
 #117

BitFunder Wall:

Where once there were over 600k shares before the .0025 wall, there are now 224,158.


om nom nom nom om nom

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July 17, 2013, 01:05:40 PM
 #118

Let's talk share value estimates. Give your projected value, time frame it is achieved within, and some reasoning behind your speculation (if you have any...)

GO!

I see it in this light:

After the wall goes down, a small bump in price over the course of that week then it flattens out.  Avalon prototype information and pics released, a small price surge with skepticism, just on the news.  NRE is announced as finished and eASIC begins production, another price surge.  Avalon's brought online, now everyone starts to take notice that the model has been coming to fruition, even the whiners who have been bashing see they made a mistake, another price surge but more aggressively.

Exact numbers?  Who knows, but look to these other securities who receive their miners, BFL singles, Avalon's, etc. and how their share price inflates. 

What about percentages? What was ASICMiner's IPO? At what hashrate increase/news did it move aggressively? It seems like we can get some rough numbers based on AM performance and pricing since ActiveMiner is following the same general model. Does anyone have those figures or know where I can dig them up?


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July 17, 2013, 01:18:54 PM
 #119

Let's talk share value estimates. Give your projected value, time frame it is achieved within, and some reasoning behind your speculation (if you have any...)

GO!

I see it in this light:

After the wall goes down, a small bump in price over the course of that week then it flattens out.  Avalon prototype information and pics released, a small price surge with skepticism, just on the news.  NRE is announced as finished and eASIC begins production, another price surge.  Avalon's brought online, now everyone starts to take notice that the model has been coming to fruition, even the whiners who have been bashing see they made a mistake, another price surge but more aggressively.

Exact numbers?  Who knows, but look to these other securities who receive their miners, BFL singles, Avalon's, etc. and how their share price inflates. 

What about percentages? What was ASICMiner's IPO? At what hashrate increase/news did it move aggressively? It seems like we can get some rough numbers based on AM performance and pricing since ActiveMiner is following the same general model. Does anyone have those figures or know where I can dig them up?

This might help:  http://web.archive.org/web/20130305000147/https://bitcointalk.to/index.php?topic=99497.0

As to the rise in their share price, I am not sure how it followed news, increase in hashing power, miner production and sales.  I do know that on May 18th it was at 1.9, which is where I bought in. 

FYI, original post has some updated information in it and links.  A lot of bashing going on in the ASICMINER spec thread, any news is good news I guess.  However, maybe some of those folks who are clueless over there, ie. thinking the wall is someone getting out or the chenbro images are "stolen," should look there. 

Chenbro is the chassis people, it will be modified, there is no dvd rom, the wall is the IPO for funding the NRE, the merge and contract rewrite was a restructuring done in collaboration with the community and more heavily invested shareholders... get out from under your rock

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July 17, 2013, 01:23:38 PM
 #120

Low-volume chips will cost something around ~BTC3 per chip, since they will immediately be available just after 3 months of paying for the NRE, so let's say October.

Let's also say the 6.377 TH are online somewhere in August, with the network hashrate being around 500TH at that time, so ~BTC1500-1600 per month considering expenses. If BTC1000 go for growth and the rest for dividends, 1000/3 = 333.33 chips * 16GH/s is a 5333.28 GH/s increase in just one month.

The high-volume process should deliver chips at no more than ~BTC1 per chip, so the growth potential should be at minimum 3x for the same price when those come in 4-4.5 months in November/December. Once these start arriving, it's gonna be om nom nom nom nom time on the network, that's for sure. The higher the volume of chips bought, the cheap they become also (y-axis is chip unit price):

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